How would you like to get paid $150.00 for a $2.00 bet on a horse whose odds are 75 - 1?
What kind of idiot would bet on a horse who is 75 - 1 to win?
*ME*. I’m *that* kind of idiot.
The horse was Turbeyville, and he won the fourth race at Tampa Bay Downs on January 29, 2009.
Brisnet Results Chart for Longshot
I love it when a Longshot comes in, and all sorts of people at the track start whining about how “Oh, They’re gonna bring in the longshots today…” and implying that the Race Track itself is “crooked” and deliberately allowing high-priced horses to win.
That kind of thinking is mostly ignorant and superstitious, and comes from looking to blame others for our own failures to accurately evaluate what might happen in a particular race.
But sometimes you really do wonder if the Jockey deliberately waited too long to try to catch a front-running longshot - in order to cash a *juicy* Superfecta or other exotic bet.
Take a look at the Trifecta payout: over $37,000 for a $2 bet.
Even more shocking, the 10-cent Superfecta paid $28,000 !
I “coulda-shoulda-woulda” had it if I had the courage of my convictions, but I only played a $2 bet to win.
If you think that was a stupid bet, at such high odds, then you do not understand how to bet on horse races, and you probably lose money in the long run, because you are donating it to people like me.
You see, it would only be a *bad* bet if the odds against the horse winning were *greater* than 75 -1.
As it was, I figured that the horse had about a 10% chance of winning, in other words I felt that the odds were actually about 10 - 1. Therefore, I should plan to lose that $2.00 bet 10 out of 11 times that I make it, for a loss of $20.00.
Wow….that is a shock to the novice Horseplayer: you should actually *plan* to lose????
Only an arrogant idiot would believe that he ought to win every bet that he makes.
BUT I plan to *win* that bet once every 11 times, and get paid $150.00, which more than covers my $20.00 investment.
Most of the time, if you look closely you can see something in the horse’s record which points out that the horse might have the potential to run well enough to win. But you have to know what to look for, and how to look for it.
And in order to “mine” for Golden Longshots, you have to know how to read and analyze the information in the Past Performance data provided by http://DRF.com and http://Brisnet.com.
Handicapping is a combination of Art and Science.
Profitable Handicapping requires knowing how to use facts, and having a finely-tuned sense of Intuition - which tells you when to look for facts that might be escaping the superficial analysis that most losing Horseplayers have settled for.
Tags: arrogant, Bet On A Horse, Convictions, Courage, Gold, Horses, How To Bet On Horse Races, Jockey, Juicy, Longshot, Longshots, Money, Novice, Odds, Shock, Stupid Bet, Superfecta, Tampa Bay Downs
Scared Money Never Wins!
Why not?
Because you lack the courage of your convictions when the time comes to bet.
Where does courage come from?
- Having a decent sized Bankroll which you do not need for other purposes
- Having a decent strategy for picking horses to bet
- Sticking to your strategy because you know “you can’t win them all.”
It is up to you to manage your bankroll.
It is up to us to show you how to find the Winners to make it Grow!
Betting on Horse Races is a matter of opinion…players back up their opinions with their money. Because of that, Handicapping is one of only four games involving wagering where skill makes a difference (Blackjack, Poker, and Sports Betting are the others).
You are welcome to offer your opinions about any of the Lessons and Tips we offer here.
Just remember, No System on earth can possibly work if you are not willing to apply it on a consistent and regular basis.
Good luck!
Tags: Bet, Betting On Horse Races, Blackjack, Courage Of Your Convictions, Horses, Matter Of Opinion, Money, Poker, Sports Betting, Wagering