How would you like to get paid $150.00 for a $2.00 bet on a horse whose odds are 75 - 1?
What kind of idiot would bet on a horse who is 75 - 1 to win?
*ME*. I’m *that* kind of idiot.
The horse was Turbeyville, and he won the fourth race at Tampa Bay Downs on January 29, 2009.
Brisnet Results Chart for Longshot
I love it when a Longshot comes in, and all sorts of people at the track start whining about how “Oh, They’re gonna bring in the longshots today…” and implying that the Race Track itself is “crooked” and deliberately allowing high-priced horses to win.
That kind of thinking is mostly ignorant and superstitious, and comes from looking to blame others for our own failures to accurately evaluate what might happen in a particular race.
But sometimes you really do wonder if the Jockey deliberately waited too long to try to catch a front-running longshot - in order to cash a *juicy* Superfecta or other exotic bet.
Take a look at the Trifecta payout: over $37,000 for a $2 bet.
Even more shocking, the 10-cent Superfecta paid $28,000 !
I “coulda-shoulda-woulda” had it if I had the courage of my convictions, but I only played a $2 bet to win.
If you think that was a stupid bet, at such high odds, then you do not understand how to bet on horse races, and you probably lose money in the long run, because you are donating it to people like me.
You see, it would only be a *bad* bet if the odds against the horse winning were *greater* than 75 -1.
As it was, I figured that the horse had about a 10% chance of winning, in other words I felt that the odds were actually about 10 - 1. Therefore, I should plan to lose that $2.00 bet 10 out of 11 times that I make it, for a loss of $20.00.
Wow….that is a shock to the novice Horseplayer: you should actually *plan* to lose????
Only an arrogant idiot would believe that he ought to win every bet that he makes.
BUT I plan to *win* that bet once every 11 times, and get paid $150.00, which more than covers my $20.00 investment.
Most of the time, if you look closely you can see something in the horse’s record which points out that the horse might have the potential to run well enough to win. But you have to know what to look for, and how to look for it.
And in order to “mine” for Golden Longshots, you have to know how to read and analyze the information in the Past Performance data provided by http://DRF.com and http://Brisnet.com.
Handicapping is a combination of Art and Science.
Profitable Handicapping requires knowing how to use facts, and having a finely-tuned sense of Intuition - which tells you when to look for facts that might be escaping the superficial analysis that most losing Horseplayers have settled for.
Tags: arrogant, Bet On A Horse, Convictions, Courage, Gold, Horses, How To Bet On Horse Races, Jockey, Juicy, Longshot, Longshots, Money, Novice, Odds, Shock, Stupid Bet, Superfecta, Tampa Bay Downs
February 18th, 2009 at 5:01 am
Good article,
Could you please explain this:
\\"You see, it would only be a *bad* bet if the odds against the horse winning were *greater* than 75 -1.
As it was, I figured that the horse had about a 10% chance of winning, in other words I felt that the odds were actually about 10 - 1.\\"
Now, how did you know that 75-1 was adequate? How did you \\\’figure\\\’ out that it had 10% chance of winning? If the chance was that less, why didn\\\’t you pick the horse which had more probability of winning?
February 18th, 2009 at 11:14 am
Hi Sheetal:
Why are all those slashes i.e. \\\\ appearing in your Comment?
Is this a bug in wordpress, or your choice?
You asked “Why not bet on Horses who have higher probabilities of winning?”
Your question is actually a legitimate one, but it can be answered by applying Basic Business strategy to all Investment opportunities.
You want to go into business selling something.
What should you sell?
On first thought, somebody might advise you to sell a product that is very likely to be bought frequently.
You will receive money, and a return on your investment, frequently.
BUT, what is the point of selling Hamburgers for $1.00 if you cannot make them for *LESS* than $1.00 ? There must be sufficient *Profit* margin after you add up all the costs and match them to all the sales revenue.
McDonalds Corporation discovered this “truth” recently, and stopped selling their double Cheeseburger for $1.00 because they were losing money. It cost more than $1.00 to make each one.
It is better to sell something which will not be bought as frequently, but the Profit will more than cover the costs of making/obtaining the Profit.
You will not get as many sales, but you will earn more profits.
BUT this will only be the case if you can Receive more for your Product *on average* than it cost you to make it.
The same applies to Horse Racing and the Art/Science of Handicapping. It is called the Principle of The Overlay.
The Horses who have the highest probability of winning usually have the *lowest* Return on Investment (ROI). These are often called “The Favorites.” They are the Horses that most people believe will win the race, and they are the Horses that most people are making their Bets on.
When you bet on the Favorite, the Race Track cannot give you very much money for your Product!
These Horses are actually referred to as Underlays:
The Probability of winning is *Under* the amount of confidence being expressed by the large sums of money being “Layed” or wagered.
It is the opposite with an Overlay, the amount being wagered on *that* horse is less than what the Probability of the Horse winning should deserve. More simply: the chance of the Horse winning is *Over* the amount being “Layed” by the betting public.
Back to Business:
Your Product is your Wager/Bet.
If you invest $1.00 on making your Bet, the Race Track might pay you $2.00 for your Bet - IF IT WINS, and then you will think that you have made 100% profit on *that* specific sale.
BUT you must add up the costs of *all* products/Bets that you make, and compare this cost with the total of *all* Payoffs you receive - in order to know if you have a profitable business.
It is a statistical fact that the Favorite Horse at the Race Track wins more often than any other horse in the race: about 30% of the time it will win.
So, out of 100 races, you can expect to win about 30 times, and *lose* 70 times.
At $2.00 Payoff for $1.00 Bet, you will have income of 30 x $2.00 = $60.00.
BUT you have lost money overall!
This is because you have invested $1.00 in each of 100 races, for a total investment of $100.00.
Your Total Income is only $60.00, however.
You have lost $40.00, for a Negative Return On Investment of
(- $.40) on average.
You will soon go Bankrupt at that rate of ROI.
This is what happens when you Bet on Underlays.
The only way you can profit in any Business, especially the Business of Handicapping, is if your Payoffs from Winning Bets are higher than the amount it cost you to make them.
One of the secrets to success is to only make Wagers/Bets which Pay Off more than the average cost to make them.
You must seek out Overlays.
In one sense,it does not matter how often you will get Paid for your investment, as long as you always get Paid more than the average cost to make the investment.
Therefore, IF you wager $1.00 on a Horse who will win roughly 10% of the time (less probable than the Favorite)….
BUT, when you WIN you will be paid more than 10 times your investment (> than 10 to 1)….
THEN you cannot fail to make Money, and you will have a Positive ROI.
So, out of 100 races you will win only 10 times (9 losses to 1 Win, or 9/1).
But when you win, you will win perhaps $12.00 (12 to 1 Payoff).
Revenue = 10 x $12.00 = $120.00.
Total Costs = 100 x $1.00 = $100.00.
Net Profit = $20.00 on an investment of $100, or an ROI of $.20 on average, per $1.00 Bet made.
You will have to wait a longer time to see Profits…but you *WILL* make money in the long run, rather than Losing it.
Your other question was about how I can know the probability of the Horse winning.
This, of course, is one of the secrets of the Art.
You must be able to assess the potential to win of each Horse in the race.
You must assess the probability that this Horse can beat all of the others.
You must assess the probability that the race will be Run in a way that maximizes your Horse’s chances to win.
You must assess the probability that the Trainer and Owner of the Horse are truly intending to try to win *that* specific race (perhaps they are only practicing/preparing/training for a more Lucrative race next month, perhaps this Horse is going Lame).
In the race in question, I had information and statistics which allowed me to estimate the probability that the horse would win in that particular race.
I also had awareness of what that particular horse might do during the race - which would give him a tremendous advantage over the other horses in the race.
I put all of these things together, PLUS my “instinct/intuition” told me this was the kind of race where a BIG UPSET might occur.
I had reason to believe that this Horse could rush to the Lead and never get caught.
You must Combine Good Information with Good Analysis in order to Mine for Golden Overlays.
I will talk more about these things in other posts.
I am quite busy right now, devoting most of my time to creating another website which will allow Members to contribute their Handicapping Secrets!
Best Wishes in all of your Investments!